Is transport on track
for 1.5°C?
What countries promised, and what they left out.
Message 01 Coverage
Is transport getting more attention?
Transport has arrived on paper.
This is the generation with the most transport content yet. 93% of third generation NDCs now mention transport in a target or action.
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The 55% counts every country with a transport mitigation target, whether it is sector wide or specific to a subsector, it is measured in emissions, vehicles, fuel or mode share.
An action is any concrete step an NDC names to cut transport emissions or build resilience, such as an incentive, a standard, an infrastructure project or a programme.
Message 02 Biggest emitters
Are the targets where the emissions are generated?
The targets sit where the emissions are not.
Only one of the world's twenty biggest transport emitters – Thailand – has set a transport GHG mitigation target. All 26 countries that have made that commitment add up to just 3% of global transport emissions. Yet their commitments matter: they offer a chance to build a low carbon transport system from the start.
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The 26 countries with a sector wide transport target, by region. Africa: Burkina Faso, Eswatini, Guinea, Liberia, Malawi, Mauritania, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sierra Leone and Somalia; Asia: Bangladesh, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates; Europe: Andorra, the Republic of Moldova and Switzerland; Latin America and the Caribbean: Belize, Chile and Saint Lucia; Oceania: Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu.
The European Union files one joint NDC for its 27 member states, including Germany, France and Italy.
Message 03 Electrification
What kind of action are countries taking?
Electrification tops popularity but misses detail.
Transport electrification appears in more NDCs than any other approach. Yet two thirds of these actions specify no instrument, incentive, standard or charging programme, stating only the intention to electrify. Within the Avoid-Shift-Improve framework in all approaches of actions, the pattern is clear: improving vehicles dominates, while avoiding trips barely features.
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Naming an instrument means stating how the change happens. The United Arab Emirates: "To accelerate the uptake of BEVs in the private sector, Ras Al Khaimah Insurance is offering reduced rates for BEVs," a purchase incentive with a named actor and mechanism. Lesotho's entry reads simply "Electrification of motorcycles," an intention with no stated mechanism behind it.
The Avoid Shift Improve framework classifies every mitigation action. Improve means a cleaner vehicle or fuel; Shift means moving trips to a less carbon intensive mode; Avoid means removing the need to travel at all.
Message 04 Gaps
Goods cause a large share of transport emissions. Do the NDCs move with them?
Freight and rail, running in parallel, not together.
Moving goods causes 43% of transport emissions and rail is close to the cleanest way to move it. Yet only 34 NDCs contain actions on both freight and rail. Of those, exactly half (17 NDCs) link them together, such as shifting freight from road onto rail.
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34 of those NDCs act on both, but only 17 tie freight and rail into one action, such as Pakistan's plan to "modernize railways to increase the freight share from road to rail", one measure doing both jobs at once. The other 17 that touch both keep them apart.
Message 05 Adaptation
How are countries planning to handle the impacts already arriving?
Adaptation mostly means stronger infrastructure.
82 NDCs write about transport adaptation, and 68 of them focus on physical infrastructure, climate proofing roads, bridges and ports. Few describe transport itself responding to a crisis, such as rules for evacuation routes or vehicles kept ready for emergencies.
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Saint Lucia's adaptation action: "Strengthening transportation networks through improved drainage systems and climate proofing coastal roads is also a key focus".
Conclusion
Is transport on track for 1.5°C?
Not yet
Current NDCs point to 2.3 to 2.5°C of warming. To stay in line with 1.5°C, transport emissions must fall at least 28% below 2019 levels by 2035. The roads, railways and ports built today will shape those emissions for decades.
Is Transport on Track for 1.5°C, GIZ and SLOCAT, September 2026, with EDGAR and IPCC AR6; UNEP Limiting Overshoot report, 2026
How much was committed
119 of 128 third generation NDCs now write about transport.
Only Thailand, among the twenty biggest transport emitters, has a target. The 26 countries with a sector-wide transport target cover only about 3% of global transport emissions, most measured against a rising BAU scenario.
What was committed to
Electrification appears in 102 of 128 third generation NDCs, but two thirds of its actions name no instrument.
Freight causes 43% of transport emissions, yet only 17 NDCs link freight and rail in one action.
82 NDCs write about transport adaptation and most of them propose stronger infrastructure.
How this was counted
Sources and limitations.
Sources
GIZ and SLOCAT NDC Transport Tracker, export of September 2026, covering the 128 active third generation NDCs. Six countries filed a revision and only the current version counts. Emissions are taken from EDGAR 2024.
What counts as a third generation NDC
We consider all NDC submissions made since November 2024 to be part of the third generation of NDCs, regardless of the document's title or version number. The European Union counts as one submission covering 27 countries. The findings may therefore differ from those of other NDC 3.0 trackers.
Definitions
Sector wide GHG target: a quantified transport GHG target covering transport as a whole. Subsector GHG target: the same, but limited to one part of transport, such as shipping. Non GHG target: a quantified transport target that does not itself specify an emissions reduction, such as a zero emission vehicle share. Action: any concrete step an NDC names to cut transport emissions or build resilience, such as an incentive, a standard, an infrastructure project or a programme. Instrument: the specific mechanism that delivers an action.
What an NDC does not cover
An NDC is not a country's full transport agenda. It records what a government chose to put in this document, not everything it plans, funds or already does. A country may be acting on transport without that action appearing in the NDC.
What each number countsdenominators
The full report
The Is Transport on Track for 1.5°C report carries country tables, the target by target detail and the full methodology.
Read the full report